Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 12.096323 14.121689 16.333008 18.920191 21.857354 25.081313 28.880806
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 8.410042 11.027355 14.173674 18.205157 23.201170 29.154444 36.746852
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 6.143624 8.930806 12.575519 17.622225 24.349519 32.919537 44.558599
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 4.860372 7.734905 11.777914 17.756408 26.223127 37.612062 53.878646
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 3.836545 6.642342 10.861876 17.482382 27.374852 41.327902 62.138810
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 3.341251 6.220552 10.804685 18.363462 30.168903 47.475485 74.203425
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 2.842682 5.678163 10.446100 18.685533 32.095777 52.466454 84.942117
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 2.398465 5.130844 9.973950 18.724967 33.529974 56.774068 94.929808
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 2.039883 4.661889 9.548863 18.757737 34.908534 61.048064 105.117384
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.922165 4.635664 9.902320 20.164402 38.680978 69.370409 122.194141
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.758514 4.480638 9.985417 21.077476 41.664583 76.594952 137.951960
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.601087 4.306217 10.000071 21.850855 44.448332 83.652946 153.851285
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.361427 3.905182 9.518223 21.650781 45.519115 87.999539 165.744291
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.107228 3.410261 8.761238 20.809084 45.314652 90.125178 174.042333
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.909657 3.006918 8.132980 20.140199 45.357229 92.670542 183.220813
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.794429 2.794572 7.903659 20.285651 47.008788 98.251088 198.128616
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.671858 2.527386 7.495368 19.975902 47.691037 102.049946 210.018906
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.628999 2.489536 7.649863 20.964355 51.159482 111.370468 232.617327
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.563041 2.360115 7.545162 21.325471 53.308712 118.251084 250.998737
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.493113 2.197051 7.321989 21.369601 54.763372 123.844853 267.234651
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.432280 2.047158 7.108084 21.406324 56.196585 129.474597 283.834981
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.426260 2.099408 7.482204 22.983660 61.257780 142.787138 316.115410
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.402939 2.078578 7.637470 24.006657 65.114137 153.824061 344.422234